Уровень 0 · материалов: 3
В кластер входят документы, посвященные механизмам и проверке точности коллективных оценок и прогнозов, и не входят тексты о индивидуальных методах анализа данных.
Общие признаки: мудрость толпы, краудсорсинговые эксперименты, точность коллективных оценок, прогнозирование
Группа выше: Коллективное поведение и координация
Смысл: The text demonstrates the 'Wisdom of the Crowd' theory, proving that the collective average of multiple independent guesses can be more accurate than any single individual's estimate.
A social experiment involving guessing the number of nuts in a plate confirmed that the average of 257 guesses (139.28) was very close to the actual number (135).
Смысл: The text is a call for participants in a crowdsourcing experiment to estimate a human's volume to test the accuracy of collective intelligence.
An author conducts a crowdsourcing experiment asking users to estimate the volume of a person in a photo to analyze the 'wisdom of the crowd'.
Смысл: The text explores the human tendency to overestimate technological and social progress in future predictions and proposes a crowdsourced experiment to track the accuracy of such forecasts over time.
The author invites the Habr community to make science and technology predictions for the next 1-5 years to study the human tendency to overestimate future progress.